Abstract: The agricultural sector is a leading employer of undocumented workers and experiences chronic labor shortages. The Trump administration’s deportation policies have intensified this labor scarcity. The articles in this theme evaluate the effects of deportation policies on labor-intensive sectors: fruit & nut, vegetable, nursery, greenhouse, floriculture, and dairy.

Abstract: Stricter immigration policies could drastically reduce US fruit production. Rising farm wages have increased mechanization efforts, but many tasks are still done by hand. This paper reviews recent literature on the current farm labor market conditions and the outlook for automation.

Abstract: California is the leading producer of lettuce, tomatoes, carrots, broccoli, and cauliflower, and accounts for 36.84 percent of US vegetable production, valued at $10.5 billion. Labor-intensive sectors, such as vegetable production, endure chronic labor shortages. The deportation of undocumented workers will drastically reduce vegetable production in California because domestic workers are unwilling to take field jobs and readily bringing in guest workers is not feasible.

Abstract: The Trump administration has aggressively pursued deporting undocumented migrants, including those employed in the agricultural and food sector. We examine the economic impacts of deporting undocumented labor throughout the dairy supply chain and across related sectors of the US economy and, as an illustrative example, the representative dairy-producing state of Idaho.

Abstract: Florida’s nursery, greenhouse, and floriculture (NGF) sector and fruit and vegetable (FV) sector are among the most labor-intensive in US agriculture, with hired labor comprising 25%–40% of production costs. Both depend heavily on unauthorized workers. Using a transparent simulation framework, we estimate the short-run effects of deporting 25%–75% of unauthorized workers. Results show substantial increases in production costs, reduced output, sales losses, and significant job cuts in both sectors. These findings underscore the sectors’ vulnerability to mass deportation and highlight the urgent need for multipronged responses.