Who Will Harvest? Immigration Policy and Labor Dependence in Florida’s Specialty Crop Sectors

Samiul Haque(a), A. Malek Hammami(a), and Hayk Khachatryan(a)
(a)University of Florida/IFAS

JEL Codes: JEL Codes: J61, J43, Q12, Q18
Keywords: agricultural labor, deportation shock, immigration enforcement, specialty crops

First Published Online: April 15, 2026

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Abstract

Florida’s nursery, greenhouse, and floriculture (NGF) sector and fruit and vegetable (FV) sector are among the most labor-intensive in US agriculture, with hired labor comprising 25%–40% of production costs. Both depend heavily on unauthorized workers. Using a transparent simulation framework, we estimate the short-run effects of deporting 25%–75% of unauthorized workers. Results show substantial increases in production costs, reduced output, sales losses, and significant job cuts in both sectors. These findings underscore the sectors’ vulnerability to mass deportation and highlight the urgent need for multipronged responses.

About the Authors: Samiul Haque is a Postdoctoral Associate, Food and Resource Economics Department, Mid-Florida Research and Education Center, University of Florida, Apopka, FL. A. Malek Hammami is an Assistant Professor, Food and Resource Economics Department, Tropical Research and Education Center, University of Florida, Homestead, FL. Hayk Khachatryan (Corresponding Author Email: hayk@ufl.edu) is a Professor, Food and Resource Economics Department, MidFlorida Research and Education Center, University of Florida, Apopka, FL

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