Florida’s nursery, greenhouse, and floriculture (NGF) sector and fruit and vegetable (FV) sector are among the most labor-intensive in US agriculture, with hired labor comprising 25%–40% of production costs. Both depend heavily on unauthorized workers. Using a transparent simulation framework, we estimate the short-run effects of deporting 25%–75% of unauthorized workers. Results show substantial increases in production costs, reduced output, sales losses, and significant job cuts in both sectors. These findings underscore the sectors’ vulnerability to mass deportation and highlight the urgent need for multipronged responses.

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